Incident investigations often conclude that one of the causes was either that people did not follow a “good” procedure or that procedures were not fit for purpose. These findings are often based on an inflated opinion of what procedures can achieve. The reality is that procedures appear very low on the hierarchy of risk control and will only ever make a fairly modest contribution to safety. Avoiding hindsight bias when considering the role of procedures in incidents can mean that more effective recommendations can be made, leading to a set of procedures that provide effective support to competent people.

Published in Loss Prevention Bulletin December 2018.  Available as a free download at